18.24% Gains in 19 Days... And I Am Still Disappointed

Apurva Sheth

Take a look at these returns.

18.24% in 19 days...

15.79% in 6 days...

11.15% in 10 days...

Impressive?

Well, for most traders these are indeed. Probably for you too.

But for me, they're disappointing.

Now don't get me wrong. This is not a case of sour grapes. These are in fact the returns generated by my very own recommendation service, Swing Trader.

So, why am I disappointed with returns most traders would give an arm and leg for?

Allow me to explain...

Let's go back to January 2016...

The year started terribly for markets. Markets plunged 12% in the first two months. All the sectoral indices were down on a year to date basis. PSU banks were beaten down most.

Sector Performance between January - February 2016

The Nifty PSU Bank Index was down about 28% in the first two months of 2016. The financial media and most analysts on the street hated the sector. Take a look at some of the headlines from those first two months of the year...

PSU Banks in The News

Now, though I'm a trader, I admire Warren Buffett. And when I recommend trades to my Swing Trader subscribers, I always have this classic Buffett quote in the back of my mind...

'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.'

PSU banks were out of favour and market participants were fearful of holding any government bank. It was time to be greedy.

I'd recommended a couple of bank stocks earlier in the year, but my first double-digit winner came in May 2016.

18.24% Gains in PNB

chart 

PNB had topped out near 230 in December 2014 and then fell into a vicious downtrend for the next year and a half. It hit a seven-year low of 69.25 in February 2016.

By April 2016, it managed to bounce back about 30% from those lows, hitting a high of 92.15. But it failed to sustain at those levels and moved down again close to the previous lows.

However, the daily RSI diverged sharply from the price. It hit an all-time low of 11.32 in January 2016, but stayed above 30 levels in May. This was a classic case of a bullish divergence, which suggested a reversal could be possible in the short term. So I recommended it to our subscribers.

Our trade went live on 26 May at 74. Our stoploss for this trade was 69, 6.76% below our entry price. And our initial target was 84, 13.51% above our entry price.

The stock moved up to 79 levels by 31 May. I revised our stoploss up to 72.70.

It traded on a flat-to-positive note in the first week of June but caught momentum on 8 June and ended the session above 80. I revised our stoploss up further to 75.45 and our target to 87.50.

On 14 June, the stock opened gap up and ended the session at 89.90. We closed the trade at our revised target price of 87.50 for gains of 18.24%.

Now 18.24% gains in nineteen days isn't bad at all. But I'm not happy with it.

Just have a look at this chart.

chart 

The uptrend continued after we exited the stock. The stock rallied non-stop until it touched a high of 137.85 on 18 July 2016. This was almost 85% above our entry price of 74.

We identified the stock correctly but only got a small portion of the entire rally.

You might say my disappointment is just a case of hindsight bias.

But what if I told you there is a proven process that would have sealed those gains for us?

What if I told you there is a strategy to generate higher returns from the same stock?

What if I told you this process helped us identify similar opportunities to generate higher returns in other stocks?

Would you still say I'm suffering from hindsight bias? Or would you be interested to know more about this strategy and process?

I am sure you would be eager to know more about it. So here's the deal... I've released a special report How to Boost Trading Profits in Four Easy Steps. It worth Rs 950, but I am giving it away for free. You download it now.

Would you be happy with 18.24% gains if you could generate higher returns? Share your views in the Club or share your comments here.

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18 Responses to "18.24% Gains in 19 Days... And I Am Still Disappointed"
Habib Ahmed
22 Feb, 2017
Nice article. Identified the trend very early. Easy to do a postmortem. In actual trade fear, greed and emotions affect the trade. Rather than a imaginary stop loss or target exist should have been guided by the trend line channel breakout. Channel breakout happened at 93 and breakout from falling trend line happened at 97. It broke the rising trend line at 122 where one should have exited.Like 
RAMESH shaparia
18 Feb, 2017
Nice article to learn and in fact to act properlyLike 
S.K.Damani
17 Feb, 2017
Compliment you on devising a statergy to trade. Have been a trader - Investor, benefitted a lot from Hidden treasure, your other paid service. Equity Master subscriber for more than 10 yrs now. Trading only in Options, on 20K make avg. 25% profit per month. Capital restricted for options, profits invested in wealth creations , long term investing, 3 to 5 years. All the best.Like 
Suhas Kothavale
17 Feb, 2017
Dear Apoorva, I went through 'How to boost..' . In it you have suggested 10% of the recent high as a stoploss . I use Amibroker- please let me know how to apply this in Ami. Any AFL you can Share ? Thanking you. Dr.Suhas Kothavale.Like 
Manas
17 Feb, 2017
This a great achievement. But for the Comer's have you any idea who is know nothing about treadingLike 
Sunil Sarin
17 Feb, 2017
Thanks a ton for very vivid and easy to grasp insight.Like 
P R Rao
16 Feb, 2017
I like your articles.Now I decided to read this book.Like 
M R
16 Feb, 2017
The article is very nice and easy to understand. Sir, I am been waiting since a month to enter this market and earn Rs.10k-15k per month on my capital of Rs.20K. Openend Demat and trading account last week, but no capital put into. I have learnt some terms and its meaning to operate in stock market like, intra-day, stoploss, market,limit, derivatives,futures of put&call etc.... but never know, where to pin in these figures as I am totally novice. Your article is very good and the principles you are folllowing are same as I am following in the life cycle. I am retired teacher-- would like to keep my monthly incomes around Rs.15k-Rs.20K. I have subscribed for your subscriptions and purchased your book too. Now, I require your helpful hand in generating my monthly goals. Kindly acknowledge your reply on above email. coming to this article, YES, I would say it a little disappointment, reason having so much detailed analysis and research on the stock, losing the opportunity to a great extent. This view is based on single script of PNB. As others have quoted, we can have different approaches for stoploss as target1 etc........ Quote :- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. is an apt moral learning in stock market operations.Like 
yogesh sheth
16 Feb, 2017
Please send me free copy as stated allowing me to study itLike 
Mplakhani
15 Feb, 2017
Send me free copy as you stated in mailLike 
K.kameswara Rao
15 Feb, 2017
Article very nice.We are unable to identify peaks of bull cycles and bottoms of bear cycles at correct time.Like 
Pankaj
15 Feb, 2017
Nice Report. How were the initial stop losses placed, in the given examples, to ensure that these stop losses were appropriate?Like 
Lawrence A
15 Feb, 2017
As you have said it almost always happens. We do not wait for the full benefit because of fear and loose because of greed. But 18.24% in 19 days is not a joke. Will see next time.Like 
VENKAT TARMUDE
14 Feb, 2017
Above colomn read .So I want to continue Like 
Patel dipakkumar
14 Feb, 2017
Really Like 
Jignesh Shah
14 Feb, 2017
I liked your article and way you created the avidity to download your special report. Thanks for all your articles. They are just awesome. JigneshLike 
Paresh
14 Feb, 2017
What you said is perfectly all right, but such type of opportunity is very rare, also we have to consider time we have to wait in our estimate. I feel profit/loss with respect to time should take us further than waiting for just one stock to perform. If we are able to take multiple trades within the same time and those trades gives good return then that is better, other option could be, we change in our position sizing and risk reward with respect to targets, we can have 3 targets and book profit in ratios, say 50% in target1, 25% in T2 and rest 25% in target3, along with revision in SL.Like 
Jignesh
14 Feb, 2017
Very Well Said - 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.' But always difficult to put in practice due to human nature. Article is good but not able to find the download link.Like 
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